Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 3.379957 3.663200 3.986526 4.390088 4.891522 5.511287 6.367022
2025-02-09 3.008720 3.366111 3.805480 4.407959 5.256835 6.501686 8.725747
2025-02-16 2.792808 3.189064 3.700906 4.452043 5.622714 7.637499 12.568571
2025-02-23 2.576063 2.973038 3.499490 4.302013 5.631344 8.183715 16.482598
2025-03-02 2.457356 2.868053 3.428305 4.319308 5.905597 9.428039 29.408753
2025-03-09 2.352850 2.769748 3.351063 4.307625 6.119031 10.753977 104.734389
2025-03-16 2.242967 2.654039 3.234913 4.211272 6.136172 11.598995 NaN
2025-03-23 2.196258 2.621960 3.237631 4.312646 6.599669 14.749834 NaN
2025-03-30 2.099647 2.512105 3.112064 4.169815 6.465979 15.237206 NaN
2025-04-06 2.009053 2.406253 2.985633 4.011926 6.262144 15.173833 NaN
2025-04-13 1.939612 2.327716 2.896824 3.914008 6.187619 15.877284 NaN
2025-04-20 1.917179 2.315993 2.911175 4.007826 6.631349 21.872019 NaN
2025-04-27 1.909545 2.327427 2.966282 4.195355 7.458851 49.965646 NaN
2025-05-04 1.871211 2.290954 2.940576 4.219015 7.819843 180.532269 NaN
2025-05-11 1.838877 2.261706 2.924425 4.260120 8.277831 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.779880 2.189137 2.830578 4.123365 8.011829 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.749501 2.159264 2.807728 4.139181 8.366713 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.717105 2.124827 2.774792 4.128509 8.617841 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.675058 2.073867 2.710543 4.040367 8.489883 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.662424 2.068108 2.724553 4.133097 9.279491 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.618561 2.011842 2.646700 4.002382 8.875700 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 1.574289 1.953989 2.564435 3.857388 8.381237 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 1.539672 1.910592 2.506545 3.767204 8.159873 NaN NaN